12 months on: Why markets feel like déjà vu (Getting harder to ignore)

13 Apr 2026

If the start of last year felt unsteady, this year feels like a repeat - just with more twists and the volume turned up. We’re once again facing shifting rate expectations, persistent inflation, and a steady flow of global events keeping markets on edge.

So, if you’ve looked at your portfolio recently and thought: didn’t we just do this? You’re not wrong. The difference is that this time, the swings have been a little sharper and the journey a little bumpier.

What this means for your plans

When markets wobble, the maths can feel a bit unforgiving:

  • A 10% drop still needs an 11.2% rise to get back to where you were.
  • And if you're taking a regular income, a 14% fall needs a 16.3% rebound just to recover.

This is where stability starts to matter just as much as performance. Even the most patient investors can feel stretched, and for anyone drawing an income, volatility becomes very real, very quickly.

Why smoothing still matters, maybe even more than before

This is exactly the kind of environment the Smooth Managed Fund (SMF) range was designed for. Although it can’t remove risk, it can aim to help make the investment journey feel more manageable.

Smoothing aims to:

  • Keep returns steadier
  • Take the edge off short-term swings
  • Support long-term decision making
  • Mitigating the impact of market shocks on income withdrawals

Smoothing isn’t about hiding risk; it’s about easing the emotional weight that risk puts on people’s shoulders. It helps turn panic into patience, and in a year like this, that kind of emotional resilience has mattered every bit as much as the numbers.

Alan Thompson, Investment Development Manager
SMF performance chart

Did clients and advisers see this coming before the volatility hit?

One of the most interesting trends leading into this year has been how many advisers and clients were already leaning towards smoothing before markets got choppie

SMF S14 (Pension Portfolio), part of the Smooth Managed Fund (SMF) range, recorded the highest net fund flows on the advised platform for the three months to January 2026, making it the platform’s top-selling fund over that period.

That’s well before the real turbulence kicked in. So, were advisers predicting what was coming?
Maybe, maybe not. But what it does show is that many were already thinking: let’s just take a bit of the stress out of this before things heat up.

What’s been encouraging is how advisers have been using the SMF range, not to replace existing strategies, but to complement them. A lot of the time it isn’t about switching everything over, it’s about adding a smoothing element to help balance out overall risk and bring a steadier feel to the journey.

These funds aren’t here to compete with everything else in the portfolio, they’re here to support it.

So, what’s the big message?

Yes, this year feels like last year, but the volatility has clearly stepped up a gear. Markets are behaving in familiar patterns, just with more intensity. As much as we’d like to, we can’t control it. But we can choose how we navigate it.

And once again, smoothing is proving its value: a steadier, more disciplined, more resilient experience at a time when that matters more than ever.

We don’t lose money because the market turns down, we lose money because we turn away.

If you’d like to explore whether smoothing fits your plans, or you’d simply like a clearer picture of how your current funds are positioned, we’re here to help.

Discover our SMF range